Unemployment Bet: Mish vs. Bryan Caplan at the Library of Economics and Liberty Blog

Last week I was at a Economics Bloggers Forum in Kansas City sponsored by the Kauffman foundation.

Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed, Mark Thoma at Economist View, Former President of the Dallas Fed Bob McTeer , Michael Mandel, former chief economist for BusinessWeek, Bryan Caplan at the Library of Economics and Liberty Blog and a group of about 20 others were at the conference.

I gave my views on the unemployment rate and most thought I was too pessimistic. Bryan Caplan proposed a bet and you can find it here: Unemployment Bet: Mish vs. Bryan Caplan.

On the fiscal crisis panel, Mish predicted high unemployment for the next ten years. This provoked a lot of heat but little light. Over dinner, though, Mish and I hammered out the following bet:

If the official initially reported U.S. monthly unemployment rate falls below 8.0% for any month between now and June, 2015, I win $100. Otherwise, Mish wins $100.

Mish based his pessimism on the implausibility of rapid job growth in construction and other key sectors. I saw this as misleading "near" reasoning - and took the "far" road instead. My position: During the last big recession in the Eighties, the unemployment rate fell about 1 percentage-point per year after the peak. So while full recovery is indeed about five years away, it would be very surprising if unemployment stayed at 8% or more for three years, much less five. Where will the new jobs appear? If I knew that, I'd probably be investing in them instead of blogging about my bets!

I highly doubt the employment growth in the 80's is the correct model, nor is the recovery following the 2001 recession.

The latter had the benefit of a housing boom followed by a commercial real estate boom, neither of which is coming. In the 80's there was still a transition from one parent working households to two parent working households and that transition enormously increased the credit buying power of households. Given that the consumer is 70% of the economy and given the 90's had an internet boom creating amazing numbers of jobs, such comparisons are prone to huge errors.

Let's not forget that interest rates fell from 18% to zero and that the Fed is zero-bound constrained now.

It is also crucial to take into consideration attitude changes and demographics. The pendulum swung as far as it could go to risk taking and consumption. The pendulum has now just started to swing back towards saving.

Look at the rampant overcapacity. Do we need more Wal-Marts, Pizza Huts, nail salons, Home Depots, Lowes, etc., etc.? I suggest not. While firing pressure may abate, beyond inventory rebuilding and a flattening economy, there is little room for hiring unless some technological revolution occurs.

Finally, I think a double dip recession is highly likely, and the redistribution efforts of the Obama administration will damper job creation for years to come. Small businesses, have extra incentive to not hire, and banks are lending responsibly for the first time in decades.

What Can Go Wrong and Right?

There is always a chance that some new technological revolution will happen to undermine my pessimistic scenario. Certainly a development in clean energy could create a massive number of jobs. There is also a chance of an advancement in the medical field that would do the same.

I am sure something good will eventually happen, it always does, but I doubt it will be that soon or even if it does happen soon, that it will create huge jobs in the United States as opposed to elsewhere.

Finally, there is a chance that Congress goes completely ape with jobs programs. However, fiscal conservatives like Chris Christie are taking governorships. Christie's efforts are long term beneficial of course, but short term it will take jobs out of the public sector.

Moreover, there is little appetite now for more stimulus programs, and it is a near certainty that the next Congress will be more conservative, with an outside chance Republicans re-take the House. Again, this is long-term beneficial, but the short-term pain for a couple of years could be immense.

One wild card in this mess is free trade. If free trade advocates win the day, that would create jobs. However, it is far more likely an all out trade war with China develops in light of increasing calls to label China a currency manipulator. Please see Pressure Increasing on China to Revalue Yuan; What Can Go Wrong? for details.

An actual war as opposed to a trade war is certainly another wild-card. War in the Mid-east could easily disrupt the supply of oil and have lasting negative effects. Then again, peace could break out. That would help create jobs.

Simplistically, Europe has had high structural unemployment for decades, Obama's socialistic policies are taking us down the same path, there is rampant overcapacity everywhere, and government interference and higher taxes will not create lasting jobs.

Barring the wild cards of technological breakthroughs, global peace, and expanded free trade, there is no reason to believe unemployment will follow models nearly every economist expects.

Implications being what they are, this is not a bet I really care to win.

Downloadable Spreadsheet

In case you missed it I have a spreadsheet you can download and graph your own projections.

Please see ...

• Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020
• Mapping Unemployment - You Make The Call

The top link contains my base assumptions about demographics etc., as well as the spreadsheet. The second link contains some "what if" by John Mauldin and I.

I will revise that sheet and make it on a quarter by quarter basis because I have some Fed and Moody's projections on that basis.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Sunday Funnies 2010-03-21: All In

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Hatch Says It's "Nuts" To Think Health Care Issue Resolved On Monday; House Majority Leader Says Bill Is Constitutional

A flurry of news reports abound as President Obama puts on a full court press to pass legislation no one really wants except the President and those who have been bribed. Let's take a look at a handful of articles.

Democrats About Six Votes Short on Health Care, Officials Say

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats need about six more votes from House members to pass a U.S. health-care overhaul, Obama administration officials said today.

White House and Democratic leaders aim to collect those votes from a pool of about 14 to 15 undecided lawmakers to get to the 216 votes needed to pass the measure, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Obama has met or called about three dozen lawmakers in the last five days and has cleared his schedule today for more last- minute appeals, including a campaign-style rally in nearby Fairfax, Virginia.

Obama postponed a five-day foreign trip to Indonesia and Australia to remain at the White House this weekend to ensure passage of a $940 billion bill that is of “paramount importance” to his presidency, spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters yesterday.

House Leaders Work to Alleviate 11th-Hour Medicare Concerns

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- House Democratic leaders worked to defuse an 11th-hour rebellion by more than a dozen lawmakers angry that hard-fought increases in Medicare reimbursements for local hospitals were removed from health-care legislation.

“My state is getting screwed,” said Representative Peter DeFazio, an Oregon Democrat. “They have to fix it. I’m a ‘no’ vote unless they fix it.”

Lawmakers representing health-care providers in 17 states are affected by the change, he said. As House leaders corral votes in favor of the legislation, DeFazio said “there are a number of people who may be miscounted at this time.”

House leaders, trying to round up 216 votes to pass revisions to the Senate bill, are working to craft a provision on the Medicare payments that would survive parliamentary challenges by Republicans when the measure is debated in the Senate.

‘Legitimate Concern’

Asked about the issue at a press conference, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters “we do want the language to be closer” to the House measure, which satisfied lawmakers “who have a legitimate concern about the reimbursement to their states being unfair.”

“We are working on that language,” the speaker said.

A provision to change the Senate version was removed from the legislation yesterday, shortly before House leaders unveiled changes, DeFazio said. It was deleted because Senate staff members told House leaders it might run afoul of parliamentary challenges by Senate Republicans, DeFazio said.

To pass muster, every provision must reduce the deficit under budget reconciliation procedures being deployed to enact the most comprehensive redesign of the health-care system in five decades.

Lawmakers are trying to rewrite the provision to win a favorable ruling from the Senate parliamentarian.

House Bill on Healthcare Is Constitutional, Hoyer Tells CNBC

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House bill on health care that is slated to come to a vote this Sunday is constitutional and should withstand legal challenges, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told CNBC.

“There’s little doubt in my mind that this bill and its provisions are in fact constitutional,” Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat, said today.

Hoyer said with a “bill of this magnitude,” legal challenges are likely. “That’s the American system that people have an opportunity to say, ‘Look, what you did was not appropriate.’”

The stakes are so high for President Barack Obama that he postponed until June a planned five-day trip to Guam, Indonesia and Australia to remain at the White House this weekend to lobby wavering lawmakers to support the 10-year, $940 billion bill in the last two days.

Obama Rallies Democrats Who Predict Health Passage

March 20 (Bloomberg)

President Barack Obama rallied House Democrats to back health-care legislation that he called “the toughest insurance reforms in history” as party leaders said they would have the votes to pass the overhaul tomorrow.

“We have been debating health care for decades,” Obama told lawmakers today at the U.S. Capitol. “It is time to pass health-care reform for Americans, and I am confident you are going to do it.”

The legislation requires Americans to get insurance, offering government aid and new purchasing exchanges to help. Insurers such as Indianapolis-based WellPoint Inc. would get millions of new policyholders, while being required to accept all customers, even with pre-existing conditions.

Representative Dan Lipinski, an Illinois Democrat, said he’s switching his vote to “no” because of the abortion issue. New York Representative Michael Arcuri, who voted for the original House bill, said he’s now a “no” because the new measure doesn’t do enough to control costs. Massachusetts Representative Stephen Lynch is also switching to “no,” the Boston Herald reported.

‘Yes’ Votes

On the other side, Democrats John Boccieri of Ohio, Allen Boyd of Florida, Bart Gordon of Tennessee, Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, Suzanne Kosmas of Florida, Betsy Markey of Colorado and Scott Murphy of New York all now plan to vote “yes” after voting “no” in November, according to statements from the lawmakers or their offices.

Hatch Says It’s ’Nuts’ to Think House Vote Ends Health Issue

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Republican Senator Orrin Hatch said Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives are “nuts” to think tomorrow’s vote on health-care legislation will resolve the issue.

If the measure passes, Senate Republicans have enough votes on at least two points of order to alter the measure and send it back to the House for a second round of votes, Hatch said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” airing this weekend.

“If those people think they’re only going to vote on this once, they’re nuts,” Hatch said as House Democratic leaders rounded up support before the scheduled vote on President Barack Obama’s top domestic priority.

The senator from Utah also said the approach Democrats are using to pass the legislation in the House may be unconstitutional because the House and Senate aren’t voting on “exactly the same language.”

Business Groups Press Lawmakers to Oppose Health-Care Measure

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Business groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce today urged lawmakers to oppose the Democratic-backed health-care legislation, as the House headed for a showdown vote this weekend.

The Chamber, the nation’s largest business group, the National Association of Manufacturers and the National Retail Federation told lawmakers in letters that their health-care votes will be highlighted in annual scorecards sent to members before the November election.

The bill is “fundamentally flawed” and would impose job- killing mandates and penalties on businesses and increase taxes, the Chamber said in a letter to members of the House of Representatives. The group said Congress must “start over.”

“The measure would drive up labor costs to the point of forcing job losses,” the National Retail Federation said in its letter. “A ‘transparent procedural ploy’ for passing the package would harm Congress’s reputation.”

Caterpillar: Health Bill Would Cost Company $100 Million

Caterpillar Inc. said the proposed overhaul of the U.S. health-care system could increase its costs by $100 million, signaling disquiet in corporate America about the controversial plan.

In a letter Thursday to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and House Republican Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio), Caterpillar urged lawmakers to vote against the plan "because of the substantial cost burdens it would place on our shareholders, employees and retirees."

The company said the potential extra costs would primarily come from provisions to tax the federal subsidies the company now receives for providing prescription-drug benefits to retirees and their spouses.

Since the Medicare drug program was enacted in 2003, Caterpillar and more than 3,500 companies that already provided drug benefits for retirees have received tax-free subsidies from the federal government as an incentive to maintain their drug programs.

The subsidies average $665 per person covered under a company-sponsored prescription program, according to benefits consultant Towers Watson, which recently completed a study on the health-care legislation's effects.

Watson Towers estimates federal taxes on the drug subsidies would amount to $233 per person receiving drug benefits under such programs.

McDevitt estimates that a company with 25,000 retirees on subsidized drug benefits could see its 2010 earnings reduced by $70 million.

Business executives have long complained that the options offered for covering 32 million uninsured would result in higher insurance costs and hinder economic growth. Opponents of the legislation have stepped up their attacks in recent days as the House moves closer toward a vote on the Senate version of the health-care legislation.

A letter Thursday to President Barack Obama and members of Congress signed by more than 130 economists predicted the legislation would discourage companies from hiring more workers and would cause reduced hours and wages for those already employed.

States Say We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Health Reform

If Democratic leaders ever get a health-care overhaul through Congress, they could find themselves only halfway through the slog.

While no arm is left untwisted, no parliamentary maneuver ignored on Capitol Hill, state legislatures have been busy themselves passing laws to defeat whatever package emerges.

Idaho wants no part of any overhaul dreamed up in Washington. Neither does Virginia or Arizona, their legislators say.

“The citizens of our state won’t be subject to another federal mandate or turn over another part of their life to government control,” Idaho Governor Butch Otter declared this week when he became the first governor to sign into law a so- called Health Freedom Act.

The Idaho law says every Idahoan is free “to choose any mode of securing health-care services without penalty.” It then instructs the attorney general to go to court to make that happen.

Already, the law has legal problems of its own. Idaho Attorney General Lawrence Wasden points out that the state constitution gives him the job of deciding whether to go to court and when. No mere statute can change that.

And Wasden isn’t ready to declare his position.

“If Congress does pass legislation, we will review it and determine at that point whether we can bring a lawsuit that has merit,” says Wasden spokesman Bob Cooper.

Virginia’s Route

Virginia’s legislature went a different route. Without telling the attorney general how to do his job, the lawmakers passed a bill that says no Virginia resident “shall be required to obtain or maintain a policy of individual insurance coverage.”

Even advocates say that amending the constitution is a legally preferable route to passing a mere statute.

The Arizona legislature has already gone the amendment route and passed a proposal that will appear on the ballot in November.

But that isn’t law yet. And if you put those three all together, they don’t add up to much of a roadblock at this point.

Gaining Momentum

So advocates point to their movement’s momentum. Beyond the three states, some 30 to 35 others have bills pending, they are quick to say.

There is a long road between dropping a bill in a hopper and attending a signing ceremony. And then, whatever state efforts get that far would have to survive a federal court fight.

“The ivory tower folks will tell you, ‘No, they’re not going anywhere,’” Otter told reporters. “But I’ll tell you what. You get 36 states, that’s a critical mass. That’s a constitutional mass.”

That number approaches the 38 states it takes to ratify an amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Otter is getting ahead of himself, given that his own attorney general, a fellow Republican, has already said he may or may not try to enforce the new law.

What A Mess

I am confident President Obama will buy the six votes he needs. That is the way the system works. I am less certain that the House reconciliation bill passes Senate challenges. If not, expect to see the bill back in the House at least once. Should that happen President Obama may need to convince 6 more representatives to sign on. Is that doable? At what cost?

There will not be a vote on Monday unless Pelosi thinks she has the votes. However "think" and "have" are likely but not necessarily the same thing. All it would take is a couple of representatives to decide to torpedo the legislation or simply get cold feet.

That said, the most likely outcome is President Obama will buy the votes he needs. It will be much more difficult the second time if the Senate sends it back because of procedural rules so the House better get it right the first time.

Next week, we will see who is "nuts" and who isn't. Meanwhile, a bill that 37 states and the majority of the US do not want is about to be rammed through Congress by a President willing to buy out anyone and everyone who is against it.

Payback time is November.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Victory for Bloomberg in Freedom of Information Lawsuit with Fed

Chalk up another victory for Bloomberg in its ongoing legal battles with the Fed over Freedom of Information.

Please consider Federal Reserve Must Disclose Bank Bailout Records.

The Federal Reserve Board must disclose documents identifying financial firms that might have collapsed without the largest U.S. government bailout ever, a federal appeals court said.

The U.S. Court of Appeals in Manhattan ruled today that the Fed must release records of the unprecedented $2 trillion U.S. loan program launched primarily after the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The ruling upholds a decision of a lower-court judge, who in August ordered that the information be released.

The Fed had argued that disclosure of the documents threatens to stigmatize borrowers and cause them “severe and irreparable competitive injury,” discouraging banks in distress from seeking help. A three-judge panel of the appeals court rejected that argument in a unanimous decision.

The U.S. Freedom of Information Act, or FOIA, “sets forth no basis for the exemption the Board asks us to read into it,” U.S. Circuit Chief Judge Dennis Jacobs wrote in the opinion. “If the Board believes such an exemption would better serve the national interest, it should ask Congress to amend the statute.”

Tripartite Test

In its opinion today, the appeals court said that the exception applies only if the agency can satisfy a three-part test. The information must be a trade secret or commercial or financial in character; must be obtained from a person; and must be privileged or confidential, according to the opinion.

The court said that the information sought by Bloomberg was not “obtained from” the borrowing banks. It rejected an alternative argument the individual Federal Reserve Banks are “persons,” for purposes of the law because they would not suffer the kind of harm required under the “privileged and confidential” requirement of the exemption.

In a related case, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein in New York previously sided with the Fed and refused to order the agency to release Fed documents that Fox News Network sought. The appeals court today returned that case to Hellerstein and told him to order the Fed to conduct further searches for documents and determine whether the documents should be disclosed.

“We are pleased that this information is finally, and rightfully, going to be made available to the American public,” said Kevin Magee, Executive Vice President of Fox Business Network, in a statement.

Balance Sheet Debt

The Fed’s balance sheet debt doubled after lending standards were relaxed following Lehman’s failure on Sept. 15, 2008. That year, the Fed began extending credit directly to companies that weren’t banks for the first time since the 1930s. Total central bank lending exceeded $2 trillion for the first time on Nov. 6, 2008, reaching $2.14 trillion on Sept. 23, 2009.

“It’s gratifying that the court recognizes the considerable interest in knowing what is being done with our tax dollars,” said Lucy Dalglish, executive director of the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press in Arlington, Virginia.

“We’ve learned some powerful lessons in the last 18 months that citizens need to pay more attention to what’s going on in the financial world. This decision will make it easier to do that.”

The case is Bloomberg LP v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 09-04083, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit (New York).

This is a victory for common sense over secrecy. The Fed does not want an audit nor will it honor reasonable requests for information. The irony is Bernanke promised more transparency. Bernanke's actions prove what a lair he is. Expect more delays as the Fed will fight this.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Brain Drain

In response to High Tech Research Moves From U.S. To China, I received this Email from Mark N. ...

Hello Mish,

Great article about High Tech research moving to China.

This, unfortunately, fits in with my personal observations.

Many of my daughter's friends who are graduating college this year plan on beginning their careers in other countries.

The schools they are graduating from include Harvard Business School, MIT, Colorado School of Mines, St. John's College and Stanford.

They will be starting their careers in New Zealand, France, South Africa, Canada, Brazil and England. Even my daughter's job choice will probably have her traveling to Italy and Germany on a regular basis.

It was startling to see that many bright young people so willing to leave this country. I don't know how many of those young men and women will actually retain their U.S. citizenship. Some really didn't seem to care one way or the other.

From my conversations with them, it is my understanding that they are very aware of what is happening in this country, as well as the world, and just wish to keep their options open.

This anecdotal observation, combined with conversations with other parents and articles that I've read, leads me to believe that the U.S. is about to encounter a "brain drain" of the next generation.

Very concerned about the ramifications of current U.S. policies and humbly yours,
Mark

Blog Comments Of Note

Malencid Writes:

In my science department 20 years ago the graduate students were 80% American, 20% foreign, mostly European and Japaneese. They all returned to their countries of origin. The INS was on their case 10 days after graduation. Today the ratio is 85% Chinese 15% Americans. None of the Chinese I've known ever return to China. All the support is ultimately coming from grants awarded to the Principal Investigator. These funds are all Federal.

Fedwatcher Writes:

This is Great Depression II papered over by programs created in Great Depression I so that the government's GDP figures hide the fact. Wake Up America! Silicon Valley's lust for indentured servants, H1-Bs, has morphed into the mechanism to transfer Silicon Valley to China and India.

The train has left the station and anyone paying on an $800,000.00 mortgage on a $1,000,000.00 Silicon Valley house will in as little as five years see themselves 50% underwater and their wages declining.

We need to immediately give a green card to every H1-B worker and end the H1-B program. If we need them, why should we ask them to leave? We either need them or we don't need them. As for foreign hard science Masters candidates, a green card, as for foreign hard science PhD candidates, a fast track to citizenship. But let us end this "indentured servitude" that harms the American worker and the H1-B worker. I don't want them to leave, I want them to be free to stay and not be exploited. This would take away the corporation's ability to cheat and game the system. Many of the successful start-ups in Silicon Valley were started by former (that is green card carrying) H1-Bs who latter became citizens.

The incentives today are for them to go "home" and start businesses there. We need to reverse that trend. For those of you not familiar with Applied Materials, they are the ones who make the secret sauce that transforms a silicon wafer into a product that drives technology. There are two firms that hold the keys to this kingdom: Applied Materials and KLA-Tencor. Now with Applied Materials moving to China, we have at most 5 years to fix things before it is "Game Over".

Hang10-In-Panama Writes:

I'll offer a few observations that have provided some context for me during a 20 year career as an engineer and corporate executive.

1 - I'm an American-born/raised, formally trained engineer (Registered Professional Engineer in Mechanical Engineering [FL]), trained at a top 10 engineering college here in the US. Many of the graduate students at the school I attended (casual observation suggests a majority) were either Indian or Chinese nationals, who were:
* very bright
* hard working
* multilingual
* self-motivated
* willing to travel wherever in the world their services were required
* did not have any sort of entitlement attitude - they worked strictly in a meritocracy

2) In my career of more than 20 years, I have worked with a number of individuals who were outstanding engineers (mostly field engineers as opposed to research engineers) who had no "formal" college-level engineering training. They were simply people with high levels of intellectual curiosity, and innate mechanical aptitude.

3. At present I'm engaged in systems-oriented work, and am working here in the US with two gentlemen from India who speak 4 languages, have Master's Degrees in Computer Science, are willing to travel away from their families for months at a time, do outstanding work (nights/weekends included) and are eager for the opportunity to apply themselves. All this for $32/hr US, which is roughly $64K/yr US (excluding benefits).

My personal response to the changing landscape is to have learned a foreign language (Spanish in my case), and gravitated towards work in areas that are less susceptible to globalized wage equilibrium. Specifically, those areas that outsourcing can't easily overcome, as the competitive advantage is related to geographic proximity. Things like domestic transportation/distribution optimization and strategic inventory management. Even so, there are large regulatory headwinds in even these areas that are a competitive disadvantage (ever try managing hazmat and/or CARB related items in California?)...

The next few years will be very interesting to watch in terms of where production and technical talent migrate, and more telling, what portion of the flux is driven by regulatory and bureaucratic considerations.

Should make for good fun watching from the sidelines as an expat in Panama...

Meanwhile Back In The U.S.

Here is an article that typifies job hunting at its finest. Please consider Scores of job seekers vie for 75 positions

A line of hopeful job applicants snaked Friday through the parking lot of a grocery store that will open May 7 in Thousand Oaks. Throughout the morning, a steady stream of people kept arriving in the hope of finding work at Sprouts Farmers Market, which has taken over the former Circuit City location at Lynn Road and West Hillcrest Drive.

“I expect we’ll have about 1,000 to 1,200 applicants if it keeps up like this,” predicted Norv Rivera, who is overseeing the two-day job fair held all day Friday and again today from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m.

Rivera, the California human resources manager for the Arizona-based Sprouts, said that in the current slow economy, applicants are coming from all walks of life, with only about 15 percent having any direct retail experience.

“We have folks coming from the construction industry. We had an actor come by, and there are a lot of folks coming in from non-retail backgrounds,” he said.

There are many interesting anecdotes in the above story offering strong evidence that Brain Drain and underemployment are both rampant.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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High Tech Research Moves From U.S. To China

Goodbye Silicon Valley, hello Xi’an China. Applied Materials will do new cutting edge research on solar panels in Xi’an.

Please consider China Drawing High-Tech Research From U.S.

XI’AN, China — For years, many of China’s best and brightest left for the United States, where high-tech industry was more cutting-edge. But Mark R. Pinto is moving in the opposite direction.

Mr. Pinto is the first chief technology officer of a major American tech company to move to China. The company, Applied Materials, is one of Silicon Valley’s most prominent firms. It supplied equipment used to perfect the first computer chips. Today, it is the world’s biggest supplier of the equipment used to make semiconductors, solar panels and flat-panel displays.

In addition to moving Mr. Pinto and his family to Beijing in January, Applied Materials, whose headquarters are in Santa Clara, Calif., has just built its newest and largest research labs here. Last week, it even held its annual shareholders’ meeting in Xi’an.

It is hardly alone. Companies — and their engineers — are being drawn here more and more as China develops a high-tech economy that increasingly competes directly with the United States.

A few American companies are even making deals with Chinese companies to license Chinese technology.

Xi’an — a city about 600 miles southwest of Beijing known for the discovery nearby of 2,200-year-old terra cotta warriors — has 47 universities and other institutions of higher learning, churning out engineers with master’s degrees who can be hired for $730 a month.

On the other side of Xi’an from Applied Materials sits Thermal Power Research Institute, China’s world-leading laboratory on cleaner coal. The company has just licensed its latest design to Future Fuels in the United States.

The American company plans to pay about $100 million to import from China a 130-foot-high maze of equipment that turns coal into a gas before burning it. This method reduces toxic pollution and makes it easier to capture and sequester gases like carbon dioxide under ground.

Future Fuels will ship the equipment to Pennsylvania and have Chinese engineers teach American workers how to assemble and operate it.

Small clean-energy companies are headed to China, too.

Locally, the Xi’an city government sold a 75-year land lease to Applied Materials at a deep discount and is reimbursing the company for roughly a quarter of the lab complex’s operating costs for five years, said Gang Zou, the site’s general manager.

The company has taken measures, including sealing its computers’ ports here, to prevent the easy use of flash drives to record data. Employees are not allowed to take computers from the building without special permission, and an elaborate system of computer passwords and electronic door keys limits access to certain technological secrets.

But none of that changes the sense that tectonic shifts are under way.

When Xie Lina, a 26-year-old Applied Materials engineer here, was asked recently whether China would play a big role in clean energy in the future, she was surprised by the question.

“Most of the graduate students in China are chasing this area,” she said. “Of course, China will lead everything.”

Applied Materials, a Silicon Valley company that supplies equipment used to manufacture semiconductors and solar panels, built its newest research lab in Xian, China.



Click here for a Slideshow On China’s Role in Clean Energy

There is much more in the article and slideshow that is worth a look. Here is one key sentence from above "Xi’an has 47 universities and other institutions of higher learning, churning out engineers with master’s degrees who can be hired for $730 a month."

Think that is not deflationary?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Battle in EU Erupts Between Germany and France Over the "Club Med" Nations and Germany's Export Policy

The Club Med nations (Spain, Greece, Portugal), are in a horrible economic bind. France, hoping to be a white knight, hopped into the fray. France is upset that Germany's export policies will force deflation on the Club Med group. Germany essentially says tough luck.

With that backdrop please consider Angela Merkel defies IMF and France as anger rises over German export surplus.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has defied France and the IMF, refusing to modify Germany’s strategy of export reliance or boost growth to help alleviate the deep crisis sweeping Southern Europe.

"Where we are strong, we will not give up our strengths just because our exports are perhaps preferred to those of other countries," she told the German Bundestag.

"The problem has to be solved from the Greek side, and everything has to be oriented in that direction rather than thinking of hasty help that does not achieve anything in the long run and merely weakens the euro even more," she said.

Instead she called for EU treaty changes so that serial violators of EMU rules could be expelled from the euro, and insisted Germany would stick to its own path of hairshirt austerity.

The tough words came as the IMF’s chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said it was time for Berlin to rethink its single-minded pursuit of exports, warning that both Germany and China need to play their part in rebalancing the global system rather than relying on huge structural surpluses. "This must change. Internal demand must be strengthened with more consumption," he told the European Parliament.

French finance minister Christine Lagarde infuriated Berlin earlier this week by suggesting that Germany’s relentlesss wage squeeze was making it impossible for Club Med states to claw back lost competitiveness within monetary union, forcing them into a deflation policy that must ultimately rebound against everybody.

Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research said the Club Med states and Ireland cannot deflate wages below German levels without causing havoc to their economies, so the EU policy creates a profound bias towards a deflationary slump for the whole system.

"The Germans are not very good at arithmetic. If they want to run surpluses near $200bn (£130bn), others must run deficits near $200bn. It is not appropriate that Germany’s dismal growth performance be exported to the whole of Europe, but that is what is going to happen," he said.

"There has been this massive self-righteousness in Germany. They have been leeching off the demand of countries for the last decade, and now they too are going to suffer until they change their ways.

Who's The Leech?

Are Germany and China the leeches, or did Greece, Spain, and Portugal spend themselves into a mess? I suggest the latter.

The US is in the same boat as well, and is threatening to label China a "currency manipulator". The remedy is not so easy as I explained in Pressure Increasing on China to Revalue Yuan; What Can Go Wrong?

Judging from the arguing, things are starting to go massively wrong in the EU as well. Look no further than German Chancellor Angela Merkel calling for EU treaty changes so that serial violators of EMU rules could be expelled from the euro.

These are signs the global recovery is toast. When this matters to the stock market is anyone's guess.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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